5:06 PM
Figure 1- Very TCHP Content South Of Cuba
As Of 5PM EDT, Gustav regained hurricane status with winds sustained at 75 MPH with higher gust, and moving toward the northwest at about 11 MPH. According to satellite imagery, Hurricane Gustav is developing an eye wall, which is about 85 percent complete at the moment, and should complete later tonight. Furthermore, it also seems that Gustav is establishing great poleward and equatoward outflow, primarily due to low level convergence and upper level divergence. Once the eye wall building process is completed, it will likely go through rapid intensification late tonight or early this morning during maximum diurnal phase. The sea surface temperatures south of Cuba are the warmest in the Atlantic, exceeding 86 degrees Fahrenheit. The warm tropical cyclone heat potential (TCHP) content in this area, will allow Gustav to grow into a dynamic tropical cyclone. The increase in temperature gradient during maximum diurnal tonight will hasten the rapid intensification process even further. It is likely that Gustav will make landfall at Louisiana as a major hurricane. However, its exact proximity to New Orleans is still somewhat uncertain, since some of the computer models are shifting west.