1:49 PM
figure 1- Possibe Track of the storm (made by me)
Figure 2- Tropical wave over Africa
Figure 2- Tropical wave over Africa
As of June 30th 2008, conditions in the tropics are tranquil, however, there areas that needs to be monitored for tropical cyclone development. It has been several days since the computer models such as the GFS, ECWMF, NOGAPS, CMC, and, the UKMET has been developing a dynamic tropical wave into a possible tropical storm about 48-60 hours from now. Due to the unanimity of the computer models it is reasonable to expect a possible tropical storm to develop next week. In addition, environmental conditions are favorable for this tropical wave to develop because, upper level winds are low, sea surface temperatures are marginally favorable (slightly above 80 degrees), and the air itself is not dry. The tropical wave that the computer models have been developing is located about 8 degrees west and 10 degrees north, and is causing torrential downpours in western Africa.
I will post another tropical update tomorrow.
Juderson Jean-Baptiste