5:52 PM
figure 1- Possible track
Figure 2- Possible track
Figure 3- Well defined circulation
Figure 2- Possible trackFigure 3- Well defined circulation
The tropical wave near Africa has gotten better organized, and the likelihood of it strengthening to a tropical depression is increasing. The tropical wave is associated with a 1010 MB low, and has a well defined circulation with sporadic vigorous convection thunderstorm near the center circulation. Environmental conditions are favorable for further development due to low upper level winds, and anomalously warm sea surface temperatures. In addition, the computer models unanimously forecast this system to become a tropical depression or a tropical storm about 48 hours from now. Despite the fact that environmental conditions are favorable, however about 400 miles west of it, upper level winds are blowing over 30 knots (nautical miles). Nevertheless according to the GFS model, upper level winds will weaken somewhat, thus, allowing marginally favorable conditions. So if this happens, the system will be a significant tropical storm, and a curve toward northwest is more likely. Unfortunately, the forecast track beyond 48 hours is highly uncertain and ambiguous because not all the computer models are in harmony with each other regarding the forecast track.