7:31 AM
The tropical wave that emerged off the coast of Africa the past few days, have strengthened to tropical storm Bertha. Maximum sustained winds are about 45 MPH with higher gusts. The storm is expected to move generally to the west northwest during the next couple of days, and then northwest. The primary factor that will determine the track of Bertha is the ridge of high pressure that is steering it. However, it appears that this ridge will weaken as trough of low pressure moves in, thus, allowing a more northwesterly path. Furthermore, the intensity of Bertha will also determine its path because, if it is a strong vigorous storm, it will likely feel the weakness of the ridge of high pressure more and curve out to sea; opposite happens when it is weaker. I myself do not believe that this system will be a dynamic storm due to excessive drier air ahead of it, which will decrease the chance of substantial strengthening. As a matter of fact, the GFS model which has been intensifying this system like crazy this couple of days suddenly weakens to almost nothing. In addition, the models' track have been slowly shifting to the south and west. Overall, the chance of this system not curving out to sea is about 40%.Elsewhere in the tropics.
A tropical wave located about 70 degrees west has been fighting 30 knot wind shear during the past couple of days, and shear is expected to drop. Despite the fact that the models do not forecast this to happen, there is a chance this system could further develop.
Thanks to the Madden Julian Oscillation (MJO), the tropics are very active, and there is a slight chance two tropical cyclones might form about 10 days from now. The GFS model forecast that a Bertha will become just a feeble area of low pressure about 100 hours from now, and a strong tropical wave will develop will develop into a tropical cyclone behind it.
Juderson Jean-Baptiste