3:00 PM
As of 11 AM this morning, Tropical storm Bertha has strengthened, with winds sustained at 50 MPH with higher gusts. What is interesting about this is that, the forecast track from the National Hurricane Center (NHC), has shifted more towards the south, and this trend will likely continue. This mostly because the weakening of the ridge of high pressure is not as significant as expected earlier this week. Despite the fact that the ridge will inevitably weaken, it will not weaken as much as expected before, and therefore can still steer Bertha towards the west northwest. Nevertheless, some of the models such as the GFS and the NOGAPS weakens Bertha Substantially over the next couple days. The likelihood of that happening is low because wind shear that is forecast to drop into marginally favorable conditions into the next couple of days. In addition sea surface temperatures (SSTS) will increase as Bertha as moves westward.