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As of 5:00 Am, Bertha's strength remains the same, with winds sustained at 50 MPH with higher gusts. However, the forecast track continues to shift towards the south putting the east coast United States, and Bermuda in jeopardy. The shift south is due to two fundamental reasons: Bertha's intensity, and the ridge of high pressure. During the past couple days, the computer models such as the GFS were aggressive on rapidly intensifying Bertha into a substantial tropical cyclone. Nevertheless as time progresses, it became apparent that Bertha will experience "slow" intensification. Consequently, the weakening of the ridge of high pressure will have less of an "impact" on it. Furthermore, models were also aggressive on significantly weakening the high during these past few days, and some had forecast that Bertha would "split" the high. It also became apparent that the weakening the high pressure system is not as significant as expected. Ultimately when all these factors are blend together, the track will shift south. The highest uncertainty right now is the intensity forecast because; the current sea surface temperatures (SSTS) are about 25-26 degrees Celsius, which barely supports convection. Nonetheless as it moves westward, it will encounter warmer water and high wind shear, which means, conditions will be marginally favorable. Thus, it is reasonable for the National Hurricane Center (NHC) to forecast a slow intensification.