9:08 AM
Bertha has gotten better organized throughout the night, with more vigorous thunderstorms flaring near the center of circulation (COC). As of 5AM this morning, maximum winds were sustained at 50 MPH with higher gusts. The tropical storm is expected to continue moving towards the west and west-northwest over the next couple of days due to a ridge of high pressure from the north that is steering it. However beyond Wednesday, when the tropical storm reaches the end of the ridge, the tracks of the computer models are not in harmony with each other. For example, the UKMET, and the GFDL have an almost 600 miles difference on their track. Regardless, the forecast track has shifted further north mainly for two fundamental reason: the tropical storm will likely curve northwest as it reaches the end of the current high pressure system, and another trough of low pressure is expected to exit the U.S about 110 hours from now. However, the chances of Bertha getting pulled out to sea by that trough pressure is low because, another ridge of high pressure is expected to exit the U.S shortly thereafter. So here is what should probably happen, as Bertha reaches the end of the current ridge it will curve towards the northwest and stall a bit as the trough of low pressure moves in. By then, it will be located about70 degrees west and 30 degrees north. Subsequently, the ridge of high pressure will move in and steer it towards the west again, threatening the Carolinas. Now depending on how strong, and how early that ridge moves out the U.S it can have a substantial impact on the track.