9:13 AM
Dolly, A Category 2
judersonservices
The central pressure inside Dolly continues to fall and the sustained winds are increasing inside Dolly this morning. As of 9 am EDT, the central pressure was 967 millibars, a drop of 5 millibars in 2 hours. This pressure is comparable to a borderline Category 2-3 hurricane. The winds are beginning to catch up to the pressure falls and as of 9 am EDT, the maximum sustained winds are 95 mph. Doppler radar wind estimates indicate that winds may be as strong as 105 mph. Therefore, I fully expect Dolly to be a 105 to 110 mph Category 2 hurricane with wind gusts well into the Category 3 range. Therefore, folks on the deep south Texas coast inside the Hurricane Warning area should expect sustained winds of over 100 mph with frequent higher gusts.
Based on my calculations, the center of Dolly should be on the coast either at or just north of South Padre Island sometime between 11 am and 1 pm Central Time. For the most up to date information regarding Hurricane Dolly, visit our Tropical Weather Page.
Hurricane force sustained winds are expected to reach the coastline by mid-morning and slowly move inland later this morning as the eyewall of Dolly draws closer and then crosses the coast. Hurricane force sustained winds of up to Category 2 strength can then be expected this afternoon as Dolly moves slowly inland. Hurricane conditions can be expected as far north as Corpus Christi. Please refer to our tropical page or local emergency management officials for the official watches and warnings.
Dolly will bring the following expected impacts to deep south Texas. This area includes Brownsville and South Padre Island:
Sustained winds of 100 mph with gusts of over 115 mph.
Tidal surges of 5 to 8 feet with higher values likely in bays and rivers.
Rainfall accumulations of up to 15 inches causing flash flooding.
Possible tornadoes.
Further north up towards Corpus Christi, here are the expected impacts:
Wind gusts to hurricane force.
Tidal surges of 2 to 4 feet with higher values possible in bays and rivers.
Rainfall accumulations of up to 15 inches causing flash flooding.
Possible tornadoes.
To sum it up, Dolly continues to strengthen at a good clip this morning and I expect the storm to come ashore at or just north of South Padre Island sometime between 11 am and 1 pm Central Time as a 105 to 110 mph Category 2 hurricane.
I will be posting updates throughout the day
Based on my calculations, the center of Dolly should be on the coast either at or just north of South Padre Island sometime between 11 am and 1 pm Central Time. For the most up to date information regarding Hurricane Dolly, visit our Tropical Weather Page.
Hurricane force sustained winds are expected to reach the coastline by mid-morning and slowly move inland later this morning as the eyewall of Dolly draws closer and then crosses the coast. Hurricane force sustained winds of up to Category 2 strength can then be expected this afternoon as Dolly moves slowly inland. Hurricane conditions can be expected as far north as Corpus Christi. Please refer to our tropical page or local emergency management officials for the official watches and warnings.
Dolly will bring the following expected impacts to deep south Texas. This area includes Brownsville and South Padre Island:
Sustained winds of 100 mph with gusts of over 115 mph.
Tidal surges of 5 to 8 feet with higher values likely in bays and rivers.
Rainfall accumulations of up to 15 inches causing flash flooding.
Possible tornadoes.
Further north up towards Corpus Christi, here are the expected impacts:
Wind gusts to hurricane force.
Tidal surges of 2 to 4 feet with higher values possible in bays and rivers.
Rainfall accumulations of up to 15 inches causing flash flooding.
Possible tornadoes.
To sum it up, Dolly continues to strengthen at a good clip this morning and I expect the storm to come ashore at or just north of South Padre Island sometime between 11 am and 1 pm Central Time as a 105 to 110 mph Category 2 hurricane.
I will be posting updates throughout the day