7:32 AM

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Sporadic showers and thunderstorm activity are in association with a disorganized area of low pressure located about 100 miles west of the Windward Islands. This system has gotten less organized since last night, and the chances of it becoming a tropical depression are not as high as they previously. There are two fundamental reasons this system having a hard time strengthening into a tropical cyclone. First it is its proximity to land because; it is only 30 miles north of South America. As a result, it pulls the drier air from the landmass into it, prohibiting it from flaring up convection. During night time, the air is more stable and cooler over land and the opposite over sea. Due to its proximity to land, it pulled some of that cooler and stable air into last night, thus, interrupting its diurnal maximum process. The second reason why is that it is too close to the equator because, it located just below 10 degrees north. Below 5 degrees for north, tropical cyclones cannot develop due to the fact that air travels at straight lines. Nevertheless, this system still has a 25% percent chance of becoming a tropical depression.

Elsewhere In The Tropics

The GFS model continues forecast a tropical cyclone might form beyond 130 hours from now, and another one beyond 200 hours from now. The GFS model has done a great job pin pointing tropical cyclone this year. Consequently, the tropics will have to be monitored closely.
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Forecaster Juderson Jean-Baptiste...
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