7:25 PM
As of 5 PM EDT, Hurricane Bertha continues to move to the northwest at 10 MPH with winds sustained at 85 MPH with higher gusts. Hurricane Bertha gradually weakened today as it was going through is eye replacement cycle. However, according to the latest satellite images convection activity appears to be diminishing at the southwestern quadrant. Nevertheless, upper level winds and sea surface temperatures provide an environment that is conductive for further development. Thus, it is somewhat possible that Bertha might intensify temporarily overnight during diurnal maximum. Beyond Friday, the computer models track are hither and thither as Hurricane Bertha will stall even further. The residential areas that should continue to monitor this Hurricane are Bermuda, Newfoundland, and Nova Scotia. As the Bertha continues to move towards the north the storms magnitude will increase as it moves into cooler waters and loses its tropical characteristics. The GFS model forecast Hurricane to make landfall near or at Nova Scotia beyond 170 hours (6 days) from now. Regardless if hurricane Bertha makes landfall or not, its effect will still be felt, as it will increase wave action at the Northeastern U.S/Canada, and Bermuda.
Possible Tropical Depression Next Week:
The GFS, UKMET, ECWMF unanimously forecast a tropical cyclone forming next week. This seems reasonable since conditions will be favorable for development. Residents in the Lesser Antilles should closely watch the tropics next week.
Broader Look:
Wind shear in the tropics has dropped significantly ever since the jet stream moved north 12 days ago. According to the GFS model, the tropics are expected to remain like this for the majority of July. Around this time last year, relentless trough of low pressures penetrated deep into the Atlantic creating unfavorable conditions. This season will be a very active one if these conditions continue.
Possible Tropical Depression Next Week:
The GFS, UKMET, ECWMF unanimously forecast a tropical cyclone forming next week. This seems reasonable since conditions will be favorable for development. Residents in the Lesser Antilles should closely watch the tropics next week.
Broader Look:
Wind shear in the tropics has dropped significantly ever since the jet stream moved north 12 days ago. According to the GFS model, the tropics are expected to remain like this for the majority of July. Around this time last year, relentless trough of low pressures penetrated deep into the Atlantic creating unfavorable conditions. This season will be a very active one if these conditions continue.