5:56 AM
As Of 5 AM EDT 28N 62W, and is moving northwest at 10 miles per hour with maximum sustained winds at 85 MPH with higher gusts. Hurricane Bertha intensity remains constant as it appears to be going through an eye replacement cycle, however, excessive dry air around it may slow the eye replacement process. The track of Bertha is really uncertain since the computer models are not in harmony with each other, and have ambiguous results. Some of the models such as the BAM forecast Hurricane Bertha to make a loop 360 degrees just like Jeanne did in 2005. Nevertheless, the likelihood of that happening is low due to the fact that the high pressure system that steered Jeanne was much stronger. If Hurricane does make loop, its forecast track will only be more puzzling. Regardless, residents in Bermuda, and Nova Scotia should closely monitor this system because the chance of landfall from Bertha is possible. If Bertha continues to the north, it will weaken, lose its tropical characteristics and become extratropical. Despite being weaker, its magnitude will increase, thus, increasing the wind field threatening Nova Scotia. However, if it does make a loop it will remain in sufficiently warm sea surface temperatures to maintain its tropical characteristics, and beyond that point it is uncertain what will happen.
Possible Development Next Week:
The GFS models continue to develop a vigorous tropical cyclone east of the lesser Antilles early next week. The GFS model forecast this system move towards the west-northwest toward the Islands, and eventually curving northwest towards the Carolinas right before it reaches Florida about 264 hours (11 days) from now. Environmental conditions are favorable for tropical cyclone development, thus, the tropics will have to be monitored very closely this week. Furthermore, environmental conditions are expected to remain favorable throughout July with low upper level winds as the jet stream stays north. This hurricane season will indeed be an active one
Forecaster Juderson
Possible Development Next Week:
The GFS models continue to develop a vigorous tropical cyclone east of the lesser Antilles early next week. The GFS model forecast this system move towards the west-northwest toward the Islands, and eventually curving northwest towards the Carolinas right before it reaches Florida about 264 hours (11 days) from now. Environmental conditions are favorable for tropical cyclone development, thus, the tropics will have to be monitored very closely this week. Furthermore, environmental conditions are expected to remain favorable throughout July with low upper level winds as the jet stream stays north. This hurricane season will indeed be an active one
Forecaster Juderson