7:17 AM
Numerous showers and thunderstorm activity are associated with an area of low pressure about 1300 miles east of the Lesser Antilles. According to satellite imagery, this system has a well defined circulation, and is close to become a tropical depression later today. For now, this system will only be a threat for the Lesser Antilles as the GFDL model forecast it to become a hurricane once it reaches there. However, 06z GFS drops this system completely after intensifying it on the previous runs. Upper level winds are expected to decrease in the Caribbean later on as the upper level low system moves away from the Bahamas islands. Due to the fact that this system is an invest, the forecast track is still uncertain right now. Nevertheless these areas are at risk: Lesser Antilles, Puerto Rico, and Hispaniola as this system may follow the same track as Ernesto in 2006.The rest of the tropics will have to be monitored closely since conditions are favorable.