10:19 AM
The tropical wave east of the Windward Islands has gotten better organized today, as it produced strong bursts of thunderstorm activity during diurnal maximum early this morning. During the past two days, drier air from west was prohibiting significant convergence for this system to develop. Ever since yesterday, convection slowly started building west of the system, and eventually the center of circulation became covered with the intense convection today. According to visible satellite imagery it is clearly obvious that this system is "breathing" better because air is converging at the surface and diverging at the upper levels. When air diverges at the higher altitudes, it enables more air to rise, thus, decreasing the pressure even further. Consequently, the likelihood of this system becoming a tropical depression within the next 24-48 hours has increased despite the unfavorable upper level winds to the northeast.
Elsewhere in the tropics, an area of low pressure of the west coast of Florida will enhance the chance of the thunderstorm activity in the peninsula today. Significant develop is not really expected of this system due to its proximity to land.
Lastly, the GFS model forecast a dynamic tropical wave to emerge from Africa over 200 hours from now. This area will have to be monitored next week.
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Forecaster Juderson
Elsewhere in the tropics, an area of low pressure of the west coast of Florida will enhance the chance of the thunderstorm activity in the peninsula today. Significant develop is not really expected of this system due to its proximity to land.
Lastly, the GFS model forecast a dynamic tropical wave to emerge from Africa over 200 hours from now. This area will have to be monitored next week.
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Forecaster Juderson