9:19 PM
As of 8PM EDT the tropical wave near the Windward Islands remain a disorganized broad area of low pressure. However, the latest Quikscat pass indicated that the overall circulation has gotten better defined. The tropical wave lost quite a bit of its convection today, which means that it still dependent on diurnal phases. Nevertheless, this may fact be the last diurnal phase it will depend on because convection is now increasing again, and will increase further tonight. I will explain how will this happen.
During the night, the sea water is warmer than the surrounding air and land unlike daytime due to the fact that it has high specific heat content or thermal capacity. Thus, the air in contact with the water will rise due to its lower buoyancy, and condense at higher altitudes. Now because 94L is a cyclone with low atmospheric pressure the rate at which the air rises will hasten, and further condensation takes place. Eventually, the condensed air will release calories (heat units) or latent heat, thus, enabling the air to rise even further. Eventually, the air the will diverge at the upper levels, therefore allowing more air to rise from the lower levels. The pressure will then drop, and the air will converge at the lower altitudes, and diverge at the higher altitudes. That ladies and gentlemen, is what you can a "breathing" system. For example, super cellular thunderstorms strongly rely on divergence caused by wind shear to form, I will post another tutorial on this later on.
Regardless, the chances of invest 94L becoming a tropical depression tomorrow is about 60 percent.
The GFS model continues to show development of a tropical cyclone forming beyond 200 hours from now. The tropics should continue to be closely monitored
$$
Forecaster Juderson Jean-Baptiste
During the night, the sea water is warmer than the surrounding air and land unlike daytime due to the fact that it has high specific heat content or thermal capacity. Thus, the air in contact with the water will rise due to its lower buoyancy, and condense at higher altitudes. Now because 94L is a cyclone with low atmospheric pressure the rate at which the air rises will hasten, and further condensation takes place. Eventually, the condensed air will release calories (heat units) or latent heat, thus, enabling the air to rise even further. Eventually, the air the will diverge at the upper levels, therefore allowing more air to rise from the lower levels. The pressure will then drop, and the air will converge at the lower altitudes, and diverge at the higher altitudes. That ladies and gentlemen, is what you can a "breathing" system. For example, super cellular thunderstorms strongly rely on divergence caused by wind shear to form, I will post another tutorial on this later on.
Regardless, the chances of invest 94L becoming a tropical depression tomorrow is about 60 percent.
The GFS model continues to show development of a tropical cyclone forming beyond 200 hours from now. The tropics should continue to be closely monitored
$$
Forecaster Juderson Jean-Baptiste
1 Response to "Tropical Update- Invest 94L"
July 16, 2008 at 10:11 PM
