4:56 AM
Threatning Caribbean Disturbance
judersonservices
CURRENT CONDITIONS
The area of disturbed weather in the eastern Caribbean has gotten better organized this morning; showers and intense thunderstorm activity seem more concentrated than the previous days. The abundance of intense thunderstorm activity near the center of circulation will hasten cyclonogenesis for Invest 94L. Due to the fact that the air pressure in Invest 94L is lower than its surroundings, the areas of higher pressure nearby will flow toward it in order to fill up the low pressure center. Just imagine a water flowing toward a bathtub drain hole. The flowing air will be forced due to the unstable conditions and eventually condense at higher altitudes forming dynamic cumulonimbus clouds. Condensation releases latent heat, and the air is able to rise even farther in to the atmosphere. This is why in figure 1, you notice the very cold cloud tops of the thunderstorms associated with this developing tropical cyclone. The NOAA buoy reports falling pressure and the possible development of a low level circulation. Thus, it is very likely that this system might become a tropical depression as early as today.
FUTURE CONDITIONS:
The likelihood that this system will become a substantial tropical cyclone is high primarily because of the favorable environmental conditions. The sea surface has adequate thermal energy to support vigorous convection, upper level winds are low enough to not interrupt with the circulation, it is being supported by an anticyclone to its north to support upper level divergence. In other words, this developing tropical cyclone can "breathe".
FUTURE TRACK
Invest 94L is currently located between Puerto Rico and the Netherland Antilles, and is moving northwest at about 13 MPH. But wait, it was moving generally towards the west yesterday, why did it change northwest. This primarily due to the weakening anticyclone to its north, and it will continue to weaken further today, allowing to invest 94L to travel in a more northerly path to cross over Hispaniola. Subsequently, a weak anticyclone will build north of it and cause it to resume its westward motion. Now, when these changes will happen are still very uncertain.
The area of disturbed weather in the eastern Caribbean has gotten better organized this morning; showers and intense thunderstorm activity seem more concentrated than the previous days. The abundance of intense thunderstorm activity near the center of circulation will hasten cyclonogenesis for Invest 94L. Due to the fact that the air pressure in Invest 94L is lower than its surroundings, the areas of higher pressure nearby will flow toward it in order to fill up the low pressure center. Just imagine a water flowing toward a bathtub drain hole. The flowing air will be forced due to the unstable conditions and eventually condense at higher altitudes forming dynamic cumulonimbus clouds. Condensation releases latent heat, and the air is able to rise even farther in to the atmosphere. This is why in figure 1, you notice the very cold cloud tops of the thunderstorms associated with this developing tropical cyclone. The NOAA buoy reports falling pressure and the possible development of a low level circulation. Thus, it is very likely that this system might become a tropical depression as early as today.
FUTURE CONDITIONS:
The likelihood that this system will become a substantial tropical cyclone is high primarily because of the favorable environmental conditions. The sea surface has adequate thermal energy to support vigorous convection, upper level winds are low enough to not interrupt with the circulation, it is being supported by an anticyclone to its north to support upper level divergence. In other words, this developing tropical cyclone can "breathe".
FUTURE TRACK
Invest 94L is currently located between Puerto Rico and the Netherland Antilles, and is moving northwest at about 13 MPH. But wait, it was moving generally towards the west yesterday, why did it change northwest. This primarily due to the weakening anticyclone to its north, and it will continue to weaken further today, allowing to invest 94L to travel in a more northerly path to cross over Hispaniola. Subsequently, a weak anticyclone will build north of it and cause it to resume its westward motion. Now, when these changes will happen are still very uncertain.