7:23 AM
Figure 1- Invest 94L west of the Antilles
Tropical Storm Fay has weakened to a tropical depression; however it will continue to dump incessant rain showers to areas in the Southeastern U.S. The majority of that rain will be beneficial for these places due to the severe drought that they are in. The problem is that tropical cyclones have the propensity to dump a great quantity of rain in a short period of time, and flash flooding will be inevitable. It is strongly recommended that individuals who live in these places carefully monitor to remnants of Fay, which can cause possible flooding and tornadoes. This is the last advisory on Fay.
Numerous showers and thunderstorm activity are in association with a vigorous tropical wave (invest 94L) located 50 miles west of the Lesser Antilles, and moving west at about 12 MPH. Ever since yesterday, this system has been trying to develop a weak mid level circulation, and that is quite evident in satellite imagery. It appears to this is an opportunistic system since it took advantage of the maximum diurnal phase last night and early this morning flare up some robust thunderstorm activity over its center of circulation, thus creating a central dense overcast (CDO). The abundance of strong thunderstorms indicates that there a lot upward vertical motion in the air, in other words, air is rising rapidly and indicates that this system has good low level convergence. Denser air from its surroundings will attempt to fill up the low pressure center; however it will rise due to instability. There it will condense, and diverge at higher altitudes, and converge at the top of anticyclone. In turn, that converging air will sink, and make an attempt to fill up the low pressure center. But wait, is something missing here? where is the rotation?. Due to invest 94L's proximity to the equator, it is not very convenient for moving air to "curve". This system's weak rotation is mostly relying on the pressure gradient and the weak effects of the coriolis force (CORF). However as this system moves more northward, conditions will favor further development more. Residents in the Lesser Antilles should continue to feel some breezy conditions today due to the pressure gradient caused by invest 94L's falling pressure, and the strong anticyclone to the north. Yesterday, some of the reported wind gusts exceeded 30 MPH.
Numerous showers and thunderstorm activity are in association with a vigorous tropical wave (invest 94L) located 50 miles west of the Lesser Antilles, and moving west at about 12 MPH. Ever since yesterday, this system has been trying to develop a weak mid level circulation, and that is quite evident in satellite imagery. It appears to this is an opportunistic system since it took advantage of the maximum diurnal phase last night and early this morning flare up some robust thunderstorm activity over its center of circulation, thus creating a central dense overcast (CDO). The abundance of strong thunderstorms indicates that there a lot upward vertical motion in the air, in other words, air is rising rapidly and indicates that this system has good low level convergence. Denser air from its surroundings will attempt to fill up the low pressure center; however it will rise due to instability. There it will condense, and diverge at higher altitudes, and converge at the top of anticyclone. In turn, that converging air will sink, and make an attempt to fill up the low pressure center. But wait, is something missing here? where is the rotation?. Due to invest 94L's proximity to the equator, it is not very convenient for moving air to "curve". This system's weak rotation is mostly relying on the pressure gradient and the weak effects of the coriolis force (CORF). However as this system moves more northward, conditions will favor further development more. Residents in the Lesser Antilles should continue to feel some breezy conditions today due to the pressure gradient caused by invest 94L's falling pressure, and the strong anticyclone to the north. Yesterday, some of the reported wind gusts exceeded 30 MPH.
I will post another update the upcoming day