1:08 PM
The tropical Atlantic remains relatively quiet and no substantial tropical cyclone development is expected during the next 48 hours.
Nevertheless serene conditions in the tropical Atlantic are only temporary, due to the fact that we getting closer to the apex of hurricane season, and Madden Julian Oscillation (MJO) pulses are expected to increase sometime next week.
In addition, the GFS and CMC model continues to forecast a strong tropical cyclone to form about 140 hours from now. The GFS has been very consistent about this scenario for the past couple of days, thus, the tropical Atlantic should be monitored closely next week. Figure 1 shows a possible track this system could follow if it becomes a vigorous tropical cyclone.
Environmental conditions are favorable near the central Atlantic, with warm sea surface temperatures, low wind shear, and the strong anticyclonic flow of the Azores high to support divergence. Consequently when this system emerges of the coast of Africa, its surroundings will favor further development.
So, take time now while things are quiet to check your hurricane supply kit and preparation checklist to make sure you have everything you need in case a hurricane threatens you.