7:20 AM
Figure 1- Possible Forecast Path
Figure 2- Possible Forecast Path
The tropical Atlantic remains quiet and no significant tropical cyclone development is expected during the next 48 hours or so. Nevertheless, there are a few areas that need to be monitored for possible tropical cyclone development. The models are hinting possible subtropical cyclone development near the coast of South Carolina about 48 hours from now. However, this system will not pose a threat to any land, due to the fact that a strong trough of low pressure will pull it towards the northeast. Figure 1 shows the possible track this system could take, once it emerges of the U.S coast. For the past couple of days now, the models are insisting possible tropical cyclone development, as a result of dynamic tropical waves emerging off the African coast about 72 hours from now. Due to the model consistency, this system has about a 75% chance of developing into a tropical cyclone. However, the latest GFS model run (06z) drops this system almost entirely. If in fact this system does develop, it will be unlikely that it will curve out to sea due to strong ridge of high pressure to the north. Furthermore if this develops, its environment will favor tropical cyclone development because, wind shear is low, sea surface temperatures are sufficiently warm, and a strong anticyclonic flow by the Azores high to provide vigorous upper level divergence. Figure 2 shows a possible track for this system if it develops.
The tropical Atlantic remains quiet and no significant tropical cyclone development is expected during the next 48 hours or so. Nevertheless, there are a few areas that need to be monitored for possible tropical cyclone development. The models are hinting possible subtropical cyclone development near the coast of South Carolina about 48 hours from now. However, this system will not pose a threat to any land, due to the fact that a strong trough of low pressure will pull it towards the northeast. Figure 1 shows the possible track this system could take, once it emerges of the U.S coast. For the past couple of days now, the models are insisting possible tropical cyclone development, as a result of dynamic tropical waves emerging off the African coast about 72 hours from now. Due to the model consistency, this system has about a 75% chance of developing into a tropical cyclone. However, the latest GFS model run (06z) drops this system almost entirely. If in fact this system does develop, it will be unlikely that it will curve out to sea due to strong ridge of high pressure to the north. Furthermore if this develops, its environment will favor tropical cyclone development because, wind shear is low, sea surface temperatures are sufficiently warm, and a strong anticyclonic flow by the Azores high to provide vigorous upper level divergence. Figure 2 shows a possible track for this system if it develops.