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TROPICAL STORM HANNA

WINDS: 65 MPH
GUSTS : 75 MPH
MINIMUM PRESSURE: 987 MB
MOVEMENT: NW 13 MPH
LOCATION: 26N 76W
8PM EDT

The overall structure of tropical storm Hanna has not changed very much during the past few hours, since dry air continues to wrap itself around Hanna's southern quadrant. As a result, lower level convergence is limited at the southern quadrant and that will hinder substantial intensification. However, environmental conditions are marginal for development and slow strengthening is expected as continues to move towards the northwest. In fact, it is possible that it will become a category one hurricane before making landfall between North and South Carolina. The winds and storm surge will be felt far from the center circulation due to its wide wind field, primarily at the northern quadrant. Thus, residents along the Carolina coastlines should monitor Hanna closely.

HURRICANE IKE

WINDS: 135 MPH
GUSTS: 160 MPH
MINIMUM PRESSURE: 945 MB
MOVEMENT: WNW 13 MPH
LOCATION: 23.6N 58.2W

Hurricane Ike has been a powerful category 4 hurricane for nearly 24 hours now, and still looks impressive in satellite imagery. Hurricane Ike is a relatively small compact tropical cyclone with tropical storm force winds only extending about only about 100 miles in diameter, and hurricane force winds extending about 30 miles. The small magnitude of Ike enabled it to intensify rapidly last night after building a complete eyewall. Smaller tropical cyclones require less energy from their environment to intensify and also conserve more angular momentum. Nevertheless, Ike has been weakening slowly today due to higher upper level winds. The majority of the computer models expect it to weaken slowly over the next couple of days as vertical shear increases. Once it reaches the Bahamas however, the environment will be more conductive for significant development. An anticyclone will build over it to support its upper level divergence, sea surface temperatures are will be sufficiently warm to provide great vertical motion, and wind shear will be adequately light to not interfere with the circulation. The model forecast tracks are in harmony with each other until Sunday, when a trough of low pressure exiting the U.S coast will cause a weakness on the ridge. The model tracks vary greatly beyond Sunday, due to the fact that it is very uncertain how strong that weakness on the ridge will be. The ECMWF initialized at 12z almost seems to ignore the fact that there will be a weakness on the ridge, and forecast Ike to make landfall in Louisiana. On the contrary, the GFS model initialized at 12z indicates that there will be a major weakness on the ridge, and take Ike out to sea. For the moment, it is best to consider these models as outliers. Despite the uncertainty of Ike's path, it is best to prepare to for it now if you are in the cone of uncertainty, and that includes, Florida's east coast, Cuba, and northern Haiti. Hurricane Ike's magnitude should increase as it continues to move west, where vorticity is more abundant. Throughout the day, the spiral bands that were embedded in the main circulation mass have been spreading outward. Ike's overall magnitude has increase nearly 10 percent since 5AM this morning. Therefore if this keeps up, Ike may become as wide as Gustav by Monday.