5:04 AM
Hurricane Ike
Winds- 135 MPH
Gusts- 160 MPH
Minimum Pressure- 948 MB
Location- 20N 73W
Movement- West/14 MPH
5AM EDT
Hurricane Ike has gained momentum Saturday afternoon, and it is now a powerful category 4 Hurricane. The moderate shear that was hindering its intensification has slacken, and further strengthen is expected until it reaches Cuba. A clearly visible eye was able to form Saturday evening as more thunderstorms formed near the center of circulation. Some of the diverging air from the top of the thunderstorms sinks into the center of circulation. As the air sinks however, it warmed adiabatically****, making the eye warmer than anywhere else in the cyclone and rain free. However at the moment, dry stable air from its northwest is trying to penetrate at the northwestern quadrant. This is the same dry air mass that prevents Hanna from strengthening substantially, and it will likely prohibit any rapid intensification from Ike. A series of strong subtropical anticyclones will cause Ike to move in a general westward motion. Despite the fact that there will be weaknesses between them, it will not be significant enough for Ike to feel the effects. As a result, residents along the Gulf Of Mexico will have to watch Ike closely, specifically those in Galveston and New Orleans.
Josephine’s Remnants
Tropical Storm Josephine has been torn apart by strong upper level winds, and now it is nothing more than a weak area of low pressure. However it took advantage of the maximum diurnal phase and managed to build some convection primarily north of the circulation. Wind shear is levels are moderate over its center of circulation, so further organization today is possible. Nonetheless, there is one last patch of high upper level winds about 80 miles to its northwest. If it does move into that unfavorable wind shear patch, the chances of it reinvigorating itself will decrease. I do not think that it will reach that patch of high upper level winds in time to weaken, since the patch of high shear is expected to move towards the northeast hastily at about 20 MPH. Wind shear will be very low by Tuesday, and Josephine may regenerate itself to a tropical cyclone by then. The NOGAPS, and the CMC are in general agreement in this like case scenario.
Another area I am watching is a tropical wave located about 50 miles east of the southern Lesser Antilles. I do not expect it to develop over the next 48 hours for two reasons. As it continues to move west, the outflow from Ike will stifle its development. Furthermore, it is inconvenient for it acquire some spin due to its proximity to the equator. Overall this is a pretty impressive system; it has been sustaining convection for the past couple of days.
****ADIABATIC WARMING AND COOLING.
Adiabatic warming and cooling is also known as compression heating, and expansion cooling. Furthermore, adiabatic warming and cooling has nothing to do with the air surrounding it. Reply to me if you want to know how this works. If you do, I will post a tutorial about it.