4:41 AM
Hurricane IKE A Potentially Catastrophic Storm
judersonservices
Hurricane Ike
Winds: 100 MPH
Gusts: 120 MPH
Min.Pressure: 946 MB
Location: 25.5N 88W
Movement: WNW 9 MPH.
5AM EDT
Indeed, Ike has the potentially to be a catastrophic hurricane for the United States. Hurricane Ike has been growing in size and strength over the past few days, and now it is a Pseudo-Hurricane Katrina. Hurricane Ike has been going through an eye replacement cycle the previous day, which hindered substantial intensification. As of this morning however, the eye replacement cycle is complete and significant strengthening is likely today. According to the latest satellite imagery, Thunderstorm activity has increased over the past hours or so, and this means that the eye will be fully visible soon. When numerous dynamic cumulonimbus clouds form near the eye, they act as a channel for fast rising air. As the air rises, it cools and condenses releasing latent heat to fuel the Hurricane further. When the rising air reaches the apex altitude, it will diverge, and some of that diverging air will sink into the eye. The current environmental conditions are favorable for further intensification because, sea surface temperatures are sufficiently warm to enhance vertical motion and lower level convergence, Upper level winds are low enough not to disrupt the circulation, and there is anticyclone over it to provide upper level divergence. I will no longer say that "there is an anticyclone" over it because it can give people the wrong impression, since the high pressure system is not directly on top of the hurricane, rather adjacent to it. Air travels from high pressure to low pressure areas, and the velocity of which the air travels depends on the pressure gradient, or the pressure difference between the cyclone and the anticyclone. As the air sinks from a high pressure system, it will move toward areas of lower presser, in an attempt to fill up the low pressure center. To get a vivid idea, imagine water draining in a bath tub hole, the water will flow toward the draining hole, since the water level is lowest there. As the sinking air from the anticyclone nears the cyclone, it itself will lose its density and begin to rise. As it rises it will condense at the mid levels, and this is lower level convergence. When it reaches the extreme top, it will diverge, sinking to areas of higher pressure. So yes technically anticyclone provides good lower level convergence, which in turn provides good upper level divergence. Hurricane Ike, has great upper level divergence on all four quadrants, and great equatoward and poleward outflow can easily be seen in satellite imagery. It is very possible that Hurricane Ike will make landfall near Houston and Galveston Texas as a powerful 4 some time during early Saturday morning. A hurricane of this magnitude and strength will cause serious damage to these areas. A storm surge of over 20 feet is very likely, and capable topping Galveston's sea wall. I know this may seem like the worst case scenario, but that is what likely to happen. It is strongly recommended that residents in these areas evacuate. Hurricane Ike will be steered primary by WNW by a high pressure system north of it. Subsequently as it reaches the ridge axis, a trough of low pressure will cause it to move more to the northwest.
Landfall Intensity:
Category 1: 5%
Category 2: 20%
Category 3: 30%
Category 4: 35%
Category 5: 10%
Winds: 100 MPH
Gusts: 120 MPH
Min.Pressure: 946 MB
Location: 25.5N 88W
Movement: WNW 9 MPH.
5AM EDT
Indeed, Ike has the potentially to be a catastrophic hurricane for the United States. Hurricane Ike has been growing in size and strength over the past few days, and now it is a Pseudo-Hurricane Katrina. Hurricane Ike has been going through an eye replacement cycle the previous day, which hindered substantial intensification. As of this morning however, the eye replacement cycle is complete and significant strengthening is likely today. According to the latest satellite imagery, Thunderstorm activity has increased over the past hours or so, and this means that the eye will be fully visible soon. When numerous dynamic cumulonimbus clouds form near the eye, they act as a channel for fast rising air. As the air rises, it cools and condenses releasing latent heat to fuel the Hurricane further. When the rising air reaches the apex altitude, it will diverge, and some of that diverging air will sink into the eye. The current environmental conditions are favorable for further intensification because, sea surface temperatures are sufficiently warm to enhance vertical motion and lower level convergence, Upper level winds are low enough not to disrupt the circulation, and there is anticyclone over it to provide upper level divergence. I will no longer say that "there is an anticyclone" over it because it can give people the wrong impression, since the high pressure system is not directly on top of the hurricane, rather adjacent to it. Air travels from high pressure to low pressure areas, and the velocity of which the air travels depends on the pressure gradient, or the pressure difference between the cyclone and the anticyclone. As the air sinks from a high pressure system, it will move toward areas of lower presser, in an attempt to fill up the low pressure center. To get a vivid idea, imagine water draining in a bath tub hole, the water will flow toward the draining hole, since the water level is lowest there. As the sinking air from the anticyclone nears the cyclone, it itself will lose its density and begin to rise. As it rises it will condense at the mid levels, and this is lower level convergence. When it reaches the extreme top, it will diverge, sinking to areas of higher pressure. So yes technically anticyclone provides good lower level convergence, which in turn provides good upper level divergence. Hurricane Ike, has great upper level divergence on all four quadrants, and great equatoward and poleward outflow can easily be seen in satellite imagery. It is very possible that Hurricane Ike will make landfall near Houston and Galveston Texas as a powerful 4 some time during early Saturday morning. A hurricane of this magnitude and strength will cause serious damage to these areas. A storm surge of over 20 feet is very likely, and capable topping Galveston's sea wall. I know this may seem like the worst case scenario, but that is what likely to happen. It is strongly recommended that residents in these areas evacuate. Hurricane Ike will be steered primary by WNW by a high pressure system north of it. Subsequently as it reaches the ridge axis, a trough of low pressure will cause it to move more to the northwest.
Landfall Intensity:
Category 1: 5%
Category 2: 20%
Category 3: 30%
Category 4: 35%
Category 5: 10%