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Tropical Weather Analysis 10/3/08

judersonservices


Brief Analysis

Numerous showers and thunderstorm activity are in association with a weak area of low pressure located just east of Belize, and are enhanced by a weak frontal system near the Florida Keys. This system has been producing copious rain in the Southwestern Caribbean, and will continue to do so over the next 36 hours. Furthermore, this system has been trying to organize itself over the past, however failed sustain itself due to little or no anticyclonic flow to help its lower level convergence. A ridge of high pressure is currently building over southern U.S., and will provide more favorable conditions over the next couple days. Regardless if this system develops or not, residents in the Mesoamerican countries should expect excessive rainfall from this system. Once the high sets up completely, it will steer this system toward Central America.

Elsewhere in the tropics:
A tropical wave associated with an upper level low located near the Windward Islands has been increasing its convection today. I do not think this system will develop any time soon for two reasons: the upper level is creating unfavorable wind shear over the northern part of the convection mass. On the other hand, wind shear is limited over the southern convection mass, however, it is somewhat too close to the equator to feel the effects of the Coriolis force sufficiently to establish rotation.

Nonetheless, if this system manages to sustain its convection, we will have to watch the SW Caribbean over the next couple of days, as it continues to move west.
2 Responses to "Tropical Weather Analysis 10/3/08"
byodbuzz03 said :
January 27, 2019 at 11:32 PM
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byodbuzz03 said :
February 1, 2019 at 4:23 AM
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