4:01 AM
5AM
The hurricane hunters have sufficient data to upgrade tropical depression 17 in to tropical storm Paloma. Some of the surfaces winds measured were over 50 Kt, however, these winds lacked consistency . The surface pressure has dropped from 1005 to 1000 MB, indicating that Paloma is strengthening gradually. The overall poleward outflow channel at the northern quadrant has increased substantially over the past 12 hours, and thunderstorm activity is still consolidating near the center of circulation, indicating vigorous lower level convergence and upper level divergence. A developing anticyclone near Florida will provide further aid to Paloma. The anticyclone is expected to remain there for about 48 hours, helping Paloma to distribute its energy with greater efficacy. Furthermore, vertical wind shear is expected to remain at relatively low levels over the next 72 hours. Some of the computer models expect this system to go through a rapid intensification phase about 36-72 hours from now. The forecast peak intensity at the moment is still unknown, However, I am leaning more towards NHC’s conservative forecast.
Due to the ambiguity of the model consensus, the forecast track for this system is very inaccurate for the time being. The 00Z GFS mode run expects this system curve towards the northeast as a result of a synoptic scale trough of low pressure that will exit the U.S. Subsequently, the GFS model expects to stall, and hit Florida as a feeble cyclone. We may see significant change on the NHC’s forecast track because trough may not be strong enough to pull this system. A large synoptic scale anticyclone is expected to develop of the Eastern United states about 100 hours from now. Depending on where Paloma is located during that time frame will greatly affect its track. The building anticyclone over the Eastern U.S. may cut off the weakness created by the trough , and resume a westward motion. Nonetheless, it is best to remain conservative and observe this system for the time being.
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FUTUREMET