3:04 PM
As of today, the tropics continue remain quiet, which is typical for this time of year. Nevertheless, the tropical around 45 degrees west grew more dynamic since the previous day due to increase convection activity despite the very dry hostile air that surrounds it. However, upper level winds have increased to over 30 knots, and that decreases the likelihood of substantial development from this system. Despite the fact that, development for this system remains below 20% it should be monitored closely. Tonight, if this system takes advantage of the diurnal maximum*, its convection activity will increase, and a defined area of low pressure might form.
* Diurnal maximum Tutorial
Water has a much higher thermal capacity or specific heat than land. Specific heat is how much thermal energy is needed to raise a substance's temperature by about 1 degree Celsius. Therefore, materials with low thermal capacity like land, their temperature fluctuate more often and substantial, the opposite happens with high thermal capacity materials like water. Thus, at daytime, land is warmer than water, and cooler than water at night, the opposite happens with water. So when it is night in the ocean, the water is warmer than the surrounding air. Subsequently, the air on contact with the ocean's surface rises, and cools and condense at higher altitudes. At times thunderstorms can forms during the diurnal maximum which can increase convection on tropical cyclones