7:14 AM
Figure 4- Invest 92L infrared
Figure 3- Invest 93L Infrared
Figure 2- Invest 92L model tracks (threatning)
Figure 1- Invest 93L model tracks
Invest 92L has gotten better organized this morning, the center of circulation is now completely closed according to the latest quickscat scan. Around 3 AM EDT this morning, dynamic convergence near the invest 92L's circulation caused to some vigorous thunderstorms to flare up. As more thunderstorms flare up, the instability continues increase and more air will rise. Strong upper level winds are abundant where 92L is located, however, the wind shear will not be a threat. This primarily because of the strong anticyclonic flow from the Azores high pressure system that helps provide this cyclone robust upper level divergence. This system seems to be forming some good poleward outflow, and some slight equatoward outflow caused by good lower level convergence and upper level divergence, and that indicates this is a "breathing" system. The computer models track are in good harmony with each other because, they all agree on generally west-northwest path. Unfortunately, that puts areas such as the northern Lesser Antilles, Bahamas, and even south Florida at risk. Residents living in these areas should monitor this cyclone closely.
Elsewhere in the tropics, I am also closely monitoring another vigorous system. The models have been shifting their forecast track gradually southward, thus, this system will have to be watch closely.
Invest 92L has gotten better organized this morning, the center of circulation is now completely closed according to the latest quickscat scan. Around 3 AM EDT this morning, dynamic convergence near the invest 92L's circulation caused to some vigorous thunderstorms to flare up. As more thunderstorms flare up, the instability continues increase and more air will rise. Strong upper level winds are abundant where 92L is located, however, the wind shear will not be a threat. This primarily because of the strong anticyclonic flow from the Azores high pressure system that helps provide this cyclone robust upper level divergence. This system seems to be forming some good poleward outflow, and some slight equatoward outflow caused by good lower level convergence and upper level divergence, and that indicates this is a "breathing" system. The computer models track are in good harmony with each other because, they all agree on generally west-northwest path. Unfortunately, that puts areas such as the northern Lesser Antilles, Bahamas, and even south Florida at risk. Residents living in these areas should monitor this cyclone closely.
Elsewhere in the tropics, I am also closely monitoring another vigorous system. The models have been shifting their forecast track gradually southward, thus, this system will have to be watch closely.